Total signals
984
984 resolved
Touch rate
83.5%
high reached +0.45% · n=991
Strict win rate
42.4%
414W · 563L (TP-vs-SL tie → SL)
Expectancy
-0.39%
avg PnL/signal under strict model
Two ways to read the win rate
Both are honest. They answer different questions.
Touch rate · 83.5%
Of all signals, what fraction had next-day high reach +0.45% at any point?
This is what you capture if you watch the morning session and pull the trigger the moment +0.45% prints. It's the strategy author's claim ("85–90% chance").
Strict win rate · 42.4%
Of resolved signals, what fraction hit +0.45% TP before −1% SL on the next bar?
Daily OHLC hides the intraday path — when both TP and SL are reachable in the same bar, we conservatively assume SL fired first. Worst case for an inattentive trader.
| Period | N | Touch | Strict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W45 | 16 | 75% | 31% |
| 2026-W44 | 5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2026-W43 | 4 | 75% | 25% |
| 2026-W42 | 4 | 75% | 25% |
| 2026-W41 | 9 | 78% | 44% |
| 2026-W40 | 10 | 70% | 30% |
| 2026-W39 | 6 | 100% | 67% |
| 2026-W38 | 6 | 50% | 17% |
| 2026-W37 | 13 | 92% | 58% |
| 2026-W36 | 4 | 75% | 50% |
| 2026-W35 | 4 | 75% | 25% |
| 2026-W34 | 5 | 100% | 40% |
| 2026-W33 | 10 | 80% | 20% |
| 2026-W32 | 14 | 86% | 46% |
| 2026-W31 | 6 | 50% | 17% |
| 2026-W30 | 2 | 100% | 0% |
| 2026-W29 | 7 | 71% | 14% |
| 2026-W28 | 13 | 92% | 31% |
| 2026-W27 | 8 | 100% | 75% |
| 2026-W26 | 6 | 67% | 50% |
| 2026-W25 | 8 | 75% | 38% |
| 2026-W24 | 14 | 86% | 50% |
| 2026-W23 | 10 | 50% | 20% |
| 2026-W22 | 7 | 86% | 43% |
By ticker
Sample size first; only sym with ≥3 resolved trades count toward best/worst.
| Ticker | Signals | Touch | Strict win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIMAS | 23 | 100% | 65% |
| TCELL | 21 | 76% | 43% |
| NUHCM | 20 | 80% | 47% |
| CIMSA | 18 | 83% | 33% |
| TTKOM | 18 | 94% | 67% |
| NTHOL | 17 | 65% | 35% |
| YKBNK | 17 | 65% | 41% |
| BIOEN | 17 | 82% | 29% |
| CCOLA | 17 | 88% | 59% |
| ISMEN | 17 | 76% | 35% |
| FROTO | 16 | 81% | 50% |
| KCHOL | 16 | 69% | 25% |
| GARAN | 16 | 94% | 44% |
| TURSG | 16 | 88% | 25% |
| TAVHL | 16 | 94% | 44% |
| EGEEN | 15 | 73% | 20% |
| PGSUS | 15 | 80% | 64% |
| DOHOL | 15 | 93% | 60% |
| KAREL | 14 | 93% | 21% |
| SASA | 14 | 86% | 50% |
| BRISA | 14 | 86% | 43% |
| DOAS | 14 | 79% | 57% |
| VESBE | 14 | 86% | 23% |
| ENKAI | 14 | 71% | 50% |
| GUBRF | 14 | 93% | 36% |
| SMRTG | 14 | 79% | 57% |
| TMSN | 13 | 85% | 54% |
| TSKB | 13 | 85% | 31% |
| HALKB | 13 | 100% | 46% |
| ARCLK | 13 | 62% | 8% |
Recent signals (latest 50)
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