Total signals
846
846 resolved
Touch rate
84.2%
high reached +0.45% · n=851
Strict win rate
43.8%
368W · 473L (TP-vs-SL tie → SL)
Expectancy
-0.37%
avg PnL/signal under strict model
Two ways to read the win rate
Both are honest. They answer different questions.
Touch rate · 84.2%
Of all signals, what fraction had next-day high reach +0.45% at any point?
This is what you capture if you watch the morning session and pull the trigger the moment +0.45% prints. It's the strategy author's claim ("85–90% chance").
Strict win rate · 43.8%
Of resolved signals, what fraction hit +0.45% TP before −1% SL on the next bar?
Daily OHLC hides the intraday path — when both TP and SL are reachable in the same bar, we conservatively assume SL fired first. Worst case for an inattentive trader.
| Period | N | Touch | Strict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W27 | 8 | 100% | 75% |
| 2026-W26 | 6 | 67% | 50% |
| 2026-W25 | 8 | 75% | 38% |
| 2026-W24 | 14 | 86% | 50% |
| 2026-W23 | 10 | 50% | 20% |
| 2026-W22 | 7 | 86% | 43% |
| 2026-W21 | 7 | 100% | 14% |
| 2026-W20 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-W19 | 18 | 100% | 83% |
| 2026-W18 | 7 | 57% | 29% |
| 2026-W17 | 3 | 100% | 100% |
| 2026-W15 | 6 | 100% | 67% |
| 2026-W14 | 15 | 60% | 20% |
| 2026-W13 | 2 | 50% | 0% |
| 2026-W12 | 6 | 67% | 33% |
| 2026-W11 | 10 | 70% | 50% |
| 2026-W10 | 6 | 100% | 17% |
| 2026-W09 | 4 | 75% | 0% |
| 2026-W07 | 7 | 100% | 86% |
| 2026-W06 | 4 | 75% | 0% |
| 2026-W05 | 2 | 100% | 0% |
| 2026-W04 | 6 | 83% | 0% |
| 2026-W03 | 12 | 100% | 50% |
| 2026-W02 | 3 | 100% | 33% |
By ticker
Sample size first; only sym with ≥3 resolved trades count toward best/worst.
| Ticker | Signals | Touch | Strict win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIMAS | 19 | 100% | 68% |
| TCELL | 18 | 72% | 33% |
| NUHCM | 17 | 82% | 53% |
| TTKOM | 17 | 94% | 71% |
| ISMEN | 16 | 75% | 38% |
| CCOLA | 15 | 87% | 60% |
| TURSG | 15 | 87% | 27% |
| CIMSA | 15 | 80% | 33% |
| NTHOL | 14 | 64% | 36% |
| ENKAI | 14 | 71% | 50% |
| GUBRF | 14 | 93% | 36% |
| PGSUS | 14 | 79% | 62% |
| TAVHL | 14 | 93% | 36% |
| SMRTG | 14 | 79% | 57% |
| ARCLK | 13 | 62% | 8% |
| VESBE | 13 | 85% | 25% |
| BRISA | 13 | 92% | 46% |
| THYAO | 13 | 69% | 46% |
| BIOEN | 13 | 85% | 38% |
| GARAN | 12 | 100% | 50% |
| HALKB | 12 | 100% | 42% |
| EGEEN | 12 | 75% | 25% |
| YKBNK | 12 | 75% | 42% |
| DOAS | 12 | 83% | 67% |
| FROTO | 12 | 83% | 58% |
| KCHOL | 12 | 67% | 33% |
| KAREL | 12 | 92% | 25% |
| TSKB | 11 | 91% | 36% |
| ASELS | 11 | 73% | 9% |
| SISE | 11 | 73% | 45% |
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